How we grade every bet
Every grade on Backdoor Props comes from the same checklist, shown right on the page. Nothing is hidden. Here is exactly what goes into it, so you can trust the verdict or disagree with it for your own reasons.
At least 5 checks in your favor and none against you. Most signs point the same way.
Some good signs, but one or two red flags. Worth a closer look before you bet.
Three or more checks against you, or only two in your favor. Too much working against the bet.
The Bet Check, line by line
Each line gets a green check, a yellow caution, or a red X. Info lines (gray) are shown but not counted.
Yellow: {{c.warn}}
Red: {{c.bad}}
Matchup grade
The Good spot, Even and Tough spot tags on every prop are half recent form (how often he beat the line in his last 10) and half the defense (how much of that stat the opponent gives up).
Our projection
Starts with his average over the last 10 games, leaning a bit more on the last 5. Then we adjust up or down for how soft or tough the defense is, and bump it up when a key teammate is out.
Real chance
We turn the sportsbook's odds into a percent and remove their built in cut. Minus 115 works out to about 54%. If a player hits more often than that, the price is in your favor.
How fresh is the data
Look for the "Updated" tags across the site. If something looks stale, refresh before you bet.
What we can't do
Nobody can predict a game, and neither can we. A Green light means the research lines up, not that the bet will win. Even a 70% player misses 3 times out of 10. Use Backdoor Props to make smarter decisions, bet amounts you're fine losing, and never chase losses.
New to this? Start with the Learn center